Elections...

Elections - One term that will be lingering in Indian hearts (at least in those of the politically active/responsible citizens) for the past month or so. With the final phase of elections happening today, the fate of the nation for the next few years would be decided in a few more days.

I'm not a political expert per se; and given that I'm in US now (and that the Indian Govt provides no options for people like me to cast their votes), I don't even have my name in the electoral list. But I just wanted to share a few thoughts about the way things are poised; and I'd also like to take this chance to cross verify my ability to analyze political strategies depending on the similarities/differences between my analysis and the actual proceedings.

Congress doesn't have anything to boast of as an achievement save the fact that a puppet PM compelted his term and that they signed the nuclear deal. Whether the deal is good or not in itself is a mystery and a highly debatable topic. That said, the Govt has a lot of negatives against it, primarily lack of internal security and absolutely no development whatsoever. In Tamilnadu, its allies (DMK) have taken corruption to a new level and they are setting role models for how one family can loot thousands of crores of taxpayer's money by controlling and distributing power among its members.

So does that mean the BJP will sweep the polls? Definitely not. Several reasons can be attributed for this fact. 1. Single party majority is almost becoming out of question in the current decade. 2. National parties, though known across the nation, aren't particularly strong in all states. Classic example being Tamilnadu; where the the Dravidian parties take the lead role in controlling politics. 3. The pseudo secular media (almost all the Indian news channels are under this category) and parties have always tried to portray BJP as some Hindu fanatic organization that will gun down everyone from the minority if it comes to power.

Personally I feel (1) is going to be the deciding factor in this election. BJP doesn't have a real strong alliance in the southern parts of India; and almost in all four states save Karnataka (where BJP actually commands some vote bank) BJP is almost deserted. In the north, I feel BJP will do quite well especially in states where it is in power. Even otherwise, there isn't anything that prevents people from voting for BJP; unlike congress that has a bunch of negatives tailing it. So assuming that the BJP does well in the north, all it needs is some solid support from the southern states; and I believe they have a plan in place - the third front. The third front in my view, is more or less like a short term parking place and honestly speaking, it has absolutely no sense in it because the parties cannot contribute to each other in anyway! So the whole point of the third front is to get some MP seats and then trade them on either sides depending on individual interests and profits.

That said, ADMK in TN and TDP in AP are likely to join the NDA; and the notable point there is BJP didn't even contest in many constituencies just to make sure that the anti-congress, anti-DMK vote is not split. With ADMK+ winning a large number of seats in TN; and TDP winning at least 50% seats in AP, added to the fact that BJP itself will get something out of Karnataka, the party doesn't really need to struggle very hard to cross the magic number. If at all my assesssment is right, Advani has taken this political game into a new level of post-election competition, which is kind of new to our setup. The party is seemingly very weak in the south (encouraging the opponents and giving them a relaxed mindset); and down the line when everything is finalized, all the silence might pay off and the lotus might bloom in the center. Let's wait and watch :)